Inflow forecast
model output — not a measurementNOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Jul 14, 11 AM EDT, for the 2 gauged tributary reaches feeding Hartwell Lake. The model routes rainfall that has already fallen plus near-term forecast precipitation.
Gauged inflow now
332.6
cfs · measured
Peak next 18h
384.9
cfs · ~5 PM EDT · modeled
Projected volume
538
acre-feet over 18h · modeled
Naive lake effect
+0.01 ft
if it all reached Hartwell · inferred
Projected flow by tributary reach
Dashed = forecast. Values are at the gauges, not at the lake — water takes hours to a couple of days to travel downstream from the gauges to the lake. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.
The “naive lake effect” spreads the projected inflow volume over the lake’s estimated current surface area, ignoring travel time, channel losses, upstream storage decisions, and releases — it is a scale reference, not a prediction of the actual lake level. During floods, watch the live dashboard instead.